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Poker Odds - Different Holdem Preflop Hands In Heads Up Verse Multi Way Pots
By IC
When playing Texas Holdem, many people have different ideas as to which starting hands they should try to thin the field with and play against one opponent or which hands they should keep multiple players in the pot in an attempt to take extra money. This article looks at the odds of different Texas Holdem preflop hands winning in heads up (2 player) verse multi-way pots to try to get some feel for how these hands perform against different numbers of players. In looking at these hands, we will make a few assumptions. We have put say $10 in the pot preflop and we either have one caller or three callers. We assume that ourselves and all callers are then all-in preflop. Now we run thousands of simulations where we deal random cards to both our opponents cards as well as the flop, turn and river and look at the percentage of these randomly dealt rounds where our hand wins for the case of 1 caller and the case of 3 callers. This then allows us to measure our expected pot size for the two player verse the multi-player situation in an attempt to gain insight into the correct strategy.
High Pockets
To look at the situation when we have a high pocket pair, we will use pocket kings as an example. When we have pocket kings against one opponent with randomly dealt cards, the odds of winning are approximately 82.12% or 0.21 to 1, that is 0.21 lost hands per hand won. In the case of 3 opponents with randomly dealt cards, the odds of winning are roughly 58% or 0.72 to 1.
Now, if we are heads up, under our assumptions there is $20 in the pot (our $10 and our opponents $10 call, ignoring the blinds). With an %82.12 chance of winning $20, our expected pot is $16.42. In the case of 3 opponents with randomly dealt hands, we have a $40 pot (our $10 and $10 from each of our 3 calling opponents) with a %58 probability of winning, so our expected pot is $23.20. Looks like we may want a few callers here.
Low Pockets
As an example of low pockets, lets use pocket fives as our example. The odds of winning against 1 opponent with randomly dealt cards are roughly %60.24 or 0.64 to 1. And against 3 opponents, the odds are approximately 28.6% or 2.45 to 1. So our expected pot sizes in this case are $12.05 for the heads up situation and $11.44 for the 3 caller situation. Here we are observing a greater expected pot for the heads up situation. This would be due to the reduced chance of an opponent hitting an over card
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